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Updated Thursday, December 12, 2019, 7:05 AM CT
Tua still projected to be a 1st rounder if he declares for the draft
December 4, 2019
Tagovailoa still projected to be 2020 1st-round draft pick
Injured Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is expected to make a full recovery from his season-ending hip fracture and, if he decides to enter the 2020 NFL Draft, is still expected to be a first-round draft pick, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports, citing five high-ranking NFL executives.
Tagovailoa was the consensus first overall pick until injuries derailed his junior season, and now he's forced to carefully consider his options.
"You think of risk-reward on coming back. You think of risk-reward on leaving," the signal-caller said, according to ESPN's Alex Scarborough. "And when I look at it ... if I come back, the risk is, what if I get hurt again? But the reward could be maybe I jump back to the top of the charts, the boards for all these teams."
Tagovailoa, who hasn't spoken with his family about the decision yet, understands he needs to do what's best from a financial standpoint.
"Now is not the time to be making emotional decisions. But now, you gotta change into thinking as a businessman. You gotta make business decisions," he said.
"If I leave, the risk is, do I still go in the first round, or do I even make (it) to the second round?" he said. "These guys don't even know if I can play with the hip injury yet, too."
The 21-year-old completed 71.4% of his passes for 2,840 yards and 33 touchdowns against three interceptions through nine games in 2019.
Prospects have until Jan. 20 to declare for the draft.
Tua could also return to school for his senior year, whether he chooses to play football for the Crimson Tide again or not.
November 22, 2019
Tagovailoa did not have loss-of-value insurance, potentially costing him millions
Alabama's chances for a College Football Playoff spot without its starting quarterback are falling as Tua Tagovailoa is out for the season due to a dislocated hip with a posterior wall fracture suffered last Saturday. But in breaking news revealed today by Darren Rovell of TheActionNetwork, the insurance provided to him by the University of Alabama did not include a loss-of-value policy.
Tua's season-ending hip injury may have cost him upwards of $10 million.
He will not be able to recoup millions of dollars in potential losses if, as most expect, he falls from the possible No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft to, say, the mid-first round, which is highly likely.
Tagovailoa underwent surgery Monday morning in Houston.
Tagovailoa, sources said, decided to only take the coverage that Alabama gave to him. Tua’s coverage entitles him to collect if doctors rule he can never play again, as the school purchased permanent total disability insurance for the QB. It’s important to note that Tagovailoa opting to take the school’s policy did not prohibit him to taking out loss-of-value insurance on his own.
“Players who are projected to go in the top-five or 10 picks should absolutely have loss-of-value insurance,” said insurance broker Keith Lerner of Total Planning in Gainesville, Fla., who has sold policies to players and schools over the past two decades and used to work with Alabama. “That’s whether the school is paying or not.”
Tagovailoa had to return to Alabama this season since NFL rules require players to be at least three years removed from high school before being eligible to declare for the draft. Tua, who graduated from high school in 2017 as the consensus No. 1 QB recruit, entered this college football season projected to be in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft.
His reported recovery timeline, assuming no complications, would not have him participating in athletic activity until at least the conclusion of the NFL Combine in late February and early March.
If Tagovailoa enters the draft, he could possibly still go in the top five based on his past performance, but it’s likely he falls behind both LSU quarterback Joe Burrow and Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert. A drop from the No. 4 pick to the No. 11 pick equals to a loss of about $13 million in signing bonus money. A drop from the No. 4 pick to No. 19 is $23 million, per Darren Rovell of the Action Network.
But Tua's family is not upset.
“I could not imagine a better partner than The university of Alabama throughout this situation,” said Galu Tagovailoa in statement to The Action Network. “They have communicated with us every step of the way during Tua’s time at Alabama, both on and off the football field. We had numerous discussions regarding insurance coverage, and we have been very comfortable with how Alabama has worked with our family at every turn. The most important thing for us right now is getting Tua healthy, and his focus is getting back with his teammates.”
A loss-of-value policy entitles the player to collect a certain percentage of the dollar amount lost based on where the player was projected to be drafted. (The draft projections themselves are clearly laid out in the policy and the value of the fall is determined by how big the policy is.)
University of Miami running back Willis McGahee, who paid for his own loss-of-value policy, could have cashed in to the tune of $2.5 million to never play again after tearing up his knee in the Fiesta Bowl in 2002. But instead, he decided to takes his chances. McGahee ended up getting drafted by the Buffalo Bills at No. 23 and went on to earn more than $35 million over his NFL career.
Tua's injury occurred on the same right leg that he had surgery on for a sprained ankle suffered earlier this season against Tennessee. After missing a couple of weeks, Tagovailoa returned for the matchup with LSU last weekend.
Mac Jones will take over at quarterback for the Crimson Tide with Western Carolina and Auburn left on the schedule.
Entering Week 12, Tagovailoa had thrown for 2,584 yards, 31 touchdowns, and three interceptions this season.
For more on Darren Rovell's story about player insurance, CLICK HERE.
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